Every time the wind blows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania is preparing for trouble, because that’s when Belarusian smugglers launch balloons with cigarettes, writes the BBC.
In the past ten weeks, illegal cigarette transportation has forced the closure of Vilnius airport 15 times, and on one occasion it was closed for 11 hours. The smugglers’ activity is causing inconvenience to thousands of travelers.
The Lithuanian government is convinced that what is happening is more sinister than the work of criminals. Lithuanians have indicated that the weather balloons with smuggled cigarettes are a hybrid attack by Russia’s closest ally Belarus. This is happening at a time when Moscow is casting an ever-increasing shadow of war over Europe, carrying out increasingly frequent sabotage operations that European officials attribute to Russian intelligence services.
Lithuania has declared a state of emergency over the disruption caused by weather balloons. Smugglers have used weather balloons to transport cigarettes before, but their numbers have increased sharply in October. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told the BBC that initially it was an organised crime activity, but now we can see how Belarus has started using organised crime to influence neighbouring countries. He said the balloons were being launched from locations that allowed them to be directed towards Vilnius airport, which is just 30 kilometres from the border.
The minister added that if it were a question of delivering a few thousand packs of cigarettes to the other side of the border,
swampy or forested areas would be used for this, rather than sending balloons directly to the country’s largest airport.
Therefore, Budrys believes that the balloons are a form of political blackmail on the eastern border of the European Union, and what Minsk is doing borders on the military and security sphere, and the Lithuanians want to avoid military escalation.
Military police are currently patrolling the border area every night, as balloons are most often launched under cover of darkness. Police officers travel to remote border roads and, setting up mobile checkpoints, randomly stop cars, check passengers’ documents and search vehicles.
The balloons fly so high that it is unsafe and uneconomical to shoot them down with air defense systems, and the Lithuanian government has offered a one million euro reward to a company that can find a suitable solution to intercept the balloons. In the meantime, military radar is being used to track the balloons, and authorities are catching those involved in the smuggling network who come to collect cigarettes. A new article in the criminal code on sabotage of civil aviation, which will also provide for real imprisonment, will soon serve as a deterrent to involvement in criminal activities.
The land border is currently marked by a high metal fence, topped and bottomed with barbed wire, and concrete blocks on the ground. All the extra security shows that
Lithuania perceives its neighbor, and its ally Russia, as dangerous and hostile.
Meanwhile, in Minsk, Alexander Lukashenko has dismissed claims that Belarus is waging a hybrid war as absurd. He recently blamed “bandits” for the balloon launches, saying they are just looking for profit opportunities and are being creative in how to circumvent the new fence.
Lithuania disagrees, in part because Minsk already has experience in carrying out hybrid attacks – in 2021 it deliberately provoked a migration crisis on the borders of Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, which has not ended. There are other signs that Belarusian state institutions are involved in the balloon launches. Vilmantas Vitkauskas, head of the crisis management center, said that smugglers used to send clusters of balloons, but now they send one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aiming them directly at the airport. He emphasized that if Lukashenko’s regime wanted to stop the smugglers, it would have been done the next day, but this is not being done, which means that the activities of the smugglers are beneficial to Minsk.
Lithuania believes that Belarus is trying to achieve an easing of sanctions. Budrys indicated that Minsk wants to attract political attention and change its policy towards Belarus.
The European Union has not recognized Lukashenko as the president of Belarus
because he imprisoned key opponents before the 2020 elections and brutally suppressed protests after them. Sanctions were already in place against Minsk, which were tightened after it allowed Russians to use its territory to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
While Europe has been increasingly vocal about the threat posed by Belarus, the US recently lifted some of the sanctions, and Minsk subsequently released 123 political prisoners, including opposition activist Maria Kolesnikova.
For now, travelers and airlines must adapt. Vilnius Airport CEO Simonas Bartkus said the situation was unprecedented for the aviation sector and no European airport had ever experienced anything like it before. Bartkus estimated that the losses for all parties involved would reach two million euros by the end of the year, adding that one aspect was the losses for the airport and airlines, but there was also the risk that passengers would lose confidence in air travel.
Travelers are already checking
a new website that shows wind direction forecasts and the likelihood of balloons heading towards the airport
before booking flights. One Pole said it was not easy and made him nervous because he just wanted to get home. Justina, a Lithuanian, said she had been checking the forecasts every day for a week and added that she believed the balloons were a hybrid attack. Her words point to another goal of hybrid attacks: to divide society and create a sense of insecurity. Justina’s partner, Martynas, said Minsk was testing NATO’s capabilities and watching how the alliance would defend itself. He added that there was currently no way to fight the most ordinary balloons: “We’re not even prepared for the basic stuff.”
Read also: Smuggler balloons continue to fly – Lithuania declares state of emergency
Read also: Finnair cancels evening flight to Vilnius due to regular airport closure
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